If they run in a City of Memphis mayoral election, say first-term City Councilmen Kemp Conrad and Jim Strickland, they will be in it to win it.
Not to increase name recognition.
Not to make sure the issues they care about are addressed.
Not just because a special election would allow them to run while staying on Council (a City Council member cannot run for mayor and re-election at the same time).
"My concern is to figure out if I can win," said Strickland. "If I figure out I cannot win then I will not run. Now, there will never be a 100-percent guarantee, but if there is a path to victory, then I will probably run."
Strickland, a 44-year-old attorney, is repeating a potent catchphrase that he insists targets no one politician but is hard not to be perceived as a shot at declared candidates Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton and City Council chair and prospective mayor pro tem Myron Lowery: "We cannot change Memphis for the next generation with leaders from the last generation."
Strickland has appointed a treasurer, so he can raise money for his exploratory effort, which most often is a signal that a candidate needs money to fund a poll. Some who have spoken to Strickland say he must be realistic in assessing his actual appeal throughout Memphis, not just in his District 5 and certainly beyond the impressively large but unmistakably homogeneous group of Facebook supporters (more than a few of whom are not Memphis voters).
Conrad, a 35-year-old partner in a commercial real estate firm, knows like Strickland that in politics, losing is beyond disappointing -- it is crushing. Strickland lost to Carol Chumney in a 2003 race for City Council despite a huge fundraising advantage, and Conrad, former chair of the Shelby County Republican Party, lost a crowded Council race for Super District 9, Position 2 in 2007 (he won a less-crowded race last year).
Conrad doesn't buy the "nothing to lose" argument. Putting family, friends, business partners and supporters -- and himself -- through an intense 90-day campaign for the third consecutive year gives Conrad pause.
"That is the most selfish thing someone can do," Conrad says. "There is no glory in second place. If you lose by one vote, there's nothing good about it. If you are not in it to win it and ask people for their hard-earned money and ask people for their time and ask people to leverage relationships -- if you are not in it to win it and going to go through all that, then you need to have your head checked."
That said, there is an enticing argument for Conrad -- as the only bona fide Republican known to be considering a run, if he can hold a substantial portion of his base and lock down Republican votes, it is easy to envision a competitive scenario.
Can he do that? Strickland, long a loyal Democrat, has attracted Republican support for his stands on public safety and fiscally conservative budgets he has proposed that did not pass.
Conrad and Strickland each say they feel no urgency, especially with Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton having delayed his retirement until the end of the month. They will continue searching for paths that might lead to victory -- and not to a political dead end.
Not to increase name recognition.
Not to make sure the issues they care about are addressed.
Not just because a special election would allow them to run while staying on Council (a City Council member cannot run for mayor and re-election at the same time).
"My concern is to figure out if I can win," said Strickland. "If I figure out I cannot win then I will not run. Now, there will never be a 100-percent guarantee, but if there is a path to victory, then I will probably run."
Strickland, a 44-year-old attorney, is repeating a potent catchphrase that he insists targets no one politician but is hard not to be perceived as a shot at declared candidates Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton and City Council chair and prospective mayor pro tem Myron Lowery: "We cannot change Memphis for the next generation with leaders from the last generation."
Strickland has appointed a treasurer, so he can raise money for his exploratory effort, which most often is a signal that a candidate needs money to fund a poll. Some who have spoken to Strickland say he must be realistic in assessing his actual appeal throughout Memphis, not just in his District 5 and certainly beyond the impressively large but unmistakably homogeneous group of Facebook supporters (more than a few of whom are not Memphis voters).
Conrad, a 35-year-old partner in a commercial real estate firm, knows like Strickland that in politics, losing is beyond disappointing -- it is crushing. Strickland lost to Carol Chumney in a 2003 race for City Council despite a huge fundraising advantage, and Conrad, former chair of the Shelby County Republican Party, lost a crowded Council race for Super District 9, Position 2 in 2007 (he won a less-crowded race last year).
Conrad doesn't buy the "nothing to lose" argument. Putting family, friends, business partners and supporters -- and himself -- through an intense 90-day campaign for the third consecutive year gives Conrad pause.
"That is the most selfish thing someone can do," Conrad says. "There is no glory in second place. If you lose by one vote, there's nothing good about it. If you are not in it to win it and ask people for their hard-earned money and ask people for their time and ask people to leverage relationships -- if you are not in it to win it and going to go through all that, then you need to have your head checked."
That said, there is an enticing argument for Conrad -- as the only bona fide Republican known to be considering a run, if he can hold a substantial portion of his base and lock down Republican votes, it is easy to envision a competitive scenario.
Can he do that? Strickland, long a loyal Democrat, has attracted Republican support for his stands on public safety and fiscally conservative budgets he has proposed that did not pass.
Conrad and Strickland each say they feel no urgency, especially with Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton having delayed his retirement until the end of the month. They will continue searching for paths that might lead to victory -- and not to a political dead end.
Both of them cannot run and expect to win. I say that not because they are both white which many readers suspect. I say that because they are the only two candidates who I can say with confidence are fiscally conservative. I think Jim Strickland, though he is a Democrat, has proven that he knows our taxes are way too high compared to Nashville, etc. He also has more name recognition than Kemp Conrad. I am a Republican and I like Kemp Conrad, but I think Strickland would get most of the R vote and lots of Ds would vote for him too. If both Strickland and Conrad enter the race, I will probably have to vote for AC Wharton to make sure someone like Whalum or Carpenter doesn't sneak into office.
Interesting comment, BWM. We're very curious ourselves how voters will do the electoral calculus if there is indeed a big crowd of candidates. Do you vote for your absolute favorite candidate? Or will a voter make more pragmatic considerations and go with the candidate who seems like the least bad choice? Many people have said to us that at least there seem to be some pretty strong, proven choices lining up (though of course there are legit critiques that can be made of all the candidates, too).
We'd like to hear from others on this issue, too.
Zack McMillin
It's "homogeneous."
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/homogeneous
Nice catch, Wintermute. The perils of blogging before breakfast. Probably will not be the last typo we'll make. Hopefully we'll keep the spelling average in that .995 range.
Though Conrad positions himself as the only Republican, Chumney will be the one to lock in the Republican majority. Conrad might have a bright future here, but I think he's too young and inexperienced for this particular race. He needs to sit back, get more experience and wait his turn. His time will come, but this is not it.