Thoughts on the mayoral poll

As the reporter tasked with getting reactions from candidates to the Mason Dixon Polling & Research snapshot of the state of the City of Memphis's special mayoral election, there was one easy call to make -- to Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton, who showed support from 45 percent of likely voters.

For everyone else, it meant delivering a difficult message -- a nationally-respected polling company had some deflating numbers for them. All took it like professionals, but there was discernible disappointment. However they chose to then interpret the poll of 400 likely voters, it was clear they had hoped the poll would affirm their electoral ambitions.

Former state legislator and City Councilwoman Carol Chumney (11 percent) rejected the poll outright and called for voters to show up "en masse" to elect a candidate "independent of the status quo." Chumney has not hidden her disgust at a poll commissioned by The Commercial Appeal two weeks before the 2007 election that showed her tied with Herman Morris at 19 percent and with Willie Herenton at 24 percent.

A close reading of that poll, however, showed a huge number of undecideds -- nearly 25 percent -- as well as a huge number of likely African-American voters who refused to participate. Steven Ethridge, a well-respected local pollster, had surmised that many of those not responding were likely Herenton voters and the undecideds were some mix of likely Herenton voters or voters waiting to decide whether Morris or Chumney had the best chance of beating Herenton.

As it turned out, Herenton got 42 percent of the vote to around 35 percent for Chumney -- expanding on the 5-percent advantage in the poll by 2 more points.

Charles Carpenter (5 percent), who managed that Herenton campaign, has a point that there is a not insignificant pocket of voters in Memphis that polls sometimes fail to account. Whether it is enough for him to erase a 40-point deficit is another matter, though Carpenter believes that Wharton's support is "soft" and that the Carpenter campaign is building momentum now that it has worked hard to achieve some name recognition.

Rev. Kenneth Whalum Jr. (3 percent) and his supporters could certainly lay claim to some of those voters the poll may have missed, though his youth-oriented campaign is targeting a young demographic notorious for not being reliable when it comes to showing up to vote.

Professional wrestler Jerry Lawler (2 percent), who has worked at presenting himself as a serious and eager candidate, found the numbers hard to square with the support he said he receives in the community. After all, he did receive 11 percent of the vote in a 1999 run in which Herenton and Joe Ford waged a memorable battle.

Wharton, by the way, felt the numbers undercounted his true support, too. He said he is confident he'll pull a big portion of the 21 percent of undecided voters and receive more than 50 percent of the vote. He says his campaign has not yet hit top speed, and he fully expects other candidates to go very negative on him in the coming days and weeks.

On that score, Wharton pointed out that the final poll of his 2002 county mayor campaign showed him with 45 percent of the vote, at which point his opponent, Republican George Flinn, amplified attacks on Wharton -- who ended up with 61 percent of the vote.

Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery (10 percent) did not reject the poll, and seemed confident that he can do more to close the gap than any other candidate. Time is running out, however -- early voting for the Oct. 15 election begins next Friday.