Early voting behind 2007, way ahead of 2003

Many are suggesting that the City of Memphis' Oct. 15 special mayoral election is being marred by unusually low turnout, but the numbers do not support that theory. Heading into the second and final week of early voting, turnout is running only about 13 percent behind early-voting totals from 2007, but the huge caveat here is that in 2007, the mayoral candidates and dozens of City Council candidates had been spending many months and hundreds of thousands of dollars reminding people to get out and vote.

In 2007, the mayor's race generated much more heat not in the least because of former mayor Willie Herenton's appetite for conflict and confrontation and his campaign's ultimately successful strategy of asking his base to validate his previous four terms of office by "shaking off the haters." That race also gained a boost when a "Draft A C" movement sprang up in July in a failed attempt to convince Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton to challenge Herenton.

Early voting turnout this year is outpacing early voting turnout from 2003 -- another year with a full slate of candidates for other city offices -- by more than 25 percent. It's also worth noting that in 2007, about 60 percent of votes cast during the 14 days of early voting were cast  in the final six days. In 2003, about 56 percent of votes cast during the 14 days of early voting came in the final six days. The final Thursday, Friday and Saturday of voting traditionally see the heaviest turnouts, as well. If that pattern holds this year, between 58,000 and 64,000 votes will be cast in early voting, fewer than the 74,300 in 2007 but well more than the 34,400 from early voting in 2003's full municipal election.

The Shelby County Election Commission also shows that 12,945 votes (51.3 percent) have been cast by registered black voters, 7,172 (28.4 percent) by registered white voters and 5,139 (20.3 percent) by those grouped in an "other" category, which is dominated by voters who do not identify themselves by race.

White Station Church of Christ in East Memphis is the No. 1 polling station so far, with 3,199 votes, followed by Bishop Byrne in Whitehaven with 2,784 votes and four others drawing nearly identical numbers, ranging from 1,810 at the Agricenter near Cordova to 1,846 at Greater Middle Baptist Church in Parkway Village. The biggest dropoff has been in the city's northernmost areas, with the pace at Gaisman Community Center falling well below the traffic Berclair Church of Christ drew in 2007 (when it was the second most-visited early-voting site) and Raleigh United Methodist also lagging behind its 2007 pace.

Early voting continues through Saturday for the Oct. 15 election.  Polls will be open at the Shelby County Election Commission, 157 Poplar, Suite 121, from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Monday-Friday and  from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday.

The following satellite sites  will be open from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Mon.-Fri. and from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday.

Agricenter (Rotunda Hallway), 7777 Walnut Grove
Anointed Temple Of Praise (Youth Room),  3939 Riverdale
Bethel Church, 5586 Stage
Bishop Byrne High School, 1475 E. Shelby
Dave Wells Community Center, 915 Chelsea
Gaisman Community Center (replaces Berclair Church of Christ),  4221 Macon
Glenview Community Center (replaces New Salem Church), 1141 S. Barksdale
Greater Middle Baptist Church (fellowship hall),  4982 Knight Arnold
Mississippi Blvd.-Family Life Center  (replaces Mississippi Blvd. Church Counseling Center),  70 N. Bellevue
Mt. Pleasant Baptist Church (fellowship building),  3045 Chelsea
New Bethel Baptist Church-Family Life Center, 7786 Poplar Pike
Pyramid Recovery Center, 1833 S. Third
Raleigh United Methodist Church,  3295 Powers
Riverside Baptist Church, 3560 S. Third
Shiloh Baptist Church, 3121 Range Line
White Station Church of Christ, 1106 Colonial