In today's editions, we updated early-voting numbers, which continue to trend toward Republicans. True, a slight majority of people are asking for Democratic ballots, 54.1 percent to 44.9 percent, but that's a huge change from 2008, when after a week of August early voting more 69 percent of people in Shelby County were asking for Democratic ballots. In fact, Friday and Saturday represented the best two days for Republicans, in terms of percentages, with right at 48 percent of the nearly 11,000 voters asking for Republican ballots.
One issue we plan to research -- whether or to what extent Democrats in Shelby County may be asking for Republican ballots in order to have a say in the Republican gubernatorial race between state senate speaker Ron Ramsey of Blountville, Chattanooga congressman Zach Wamp and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam. The Democrats have only one gubernatorial candidate, Jackson businessman Mike McWherter, and voters in the state have been bombarded by messages from the Republicans.
For likely Democratic voters registered outside of the 9th Congressional and unable to vote in the Steve Cohen-Willie Herenton race, there is some logic to voting in the GOP primary, since most political observers expect the GOP nominee to be a huge favorite in the November general election. For Shelby Democrats in the 8th Congressional District, there is further motivation for voting in the GOP primary -- the GOP slugfest between Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn, Jackson physician Ron Kirkland and Stephen Fincher, the gospel-singing farmer from Frog Jump, Tenn., who has the backing of the national Republican apparatus in Washington, D.C. Since Roy Herron is the de facto Democratic nominee in the 8th for the general election, Democrats may be trying to help elect whichever candidate they believe would present the most favorable matchup for Herron.
Whatever the reason for the improvement in the ratio of requested Republican ballots, the most ominous sign for Democrats may be the so-far anemic turnout by registered black voters. So far, there have been 18,204 votes by registered white voters, or 44 percent of all early votes, compared to 13,198 registered black voters (31.9 percent) and 9,932 (24.0 percent) by those who fall into the "other" category, which tends to represent newer and/or younger registrants who did not disclose race when they voted. When you consider that much of the optimism by Shelby County Democrats was anchored in 2008 success countywide, that's a very disappointing trend. In 2008, registered black voters made up 40.7 percent of early votes vs. 29.1 percent for white registered voters.
Interestingly, the conventional wisdom has been that Republicans running countywide like mayoral candidate Mark Luttrell would need to gain significant crossover votes from Democrats to beat interim county mayor Joe Ford. Thus, you get Luttrell strongly denying ever publicly supporting Republican presidential tickets in 2004 and 2008. However, if these trends continue, Luttrell and other Republicans may not need many crossover votes at all to win. That said, we doubt you'll see any commercials by Republican countywide candidates touting their tea-party credentials.
One issue we plan to research -- whether or to what extent Democrats in Shelby County may be asking for Republican ballots in order to have a say in the Republican gubernatorial race between state senate speaker Ron Ramsey of Blountville, Chattanooga congressman Zach Wamp and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam. The Democrats have only one gubernatorial candidate, Jackson businessman Mike McWherter, and voters in the state have been bombarded by messages from the Republicans.
For likely Democratic voters registered outside of the 9th Congressional and unable to vote in the Steve Cohen-Willie Herenton race, there is some logic to voting in the GOP primary, since most political observers expect the GOP nominee to be a huge favorite in the November general election. For Shelby Democrats in the 8th Congressional District, there is further motivation for voting in the GOP primary -- the GOP slugfest between Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn, Jackson physician Ron Kirkland and Stephen Fincher, the gospel-singing farmer from Frog Jump, Tenn., who has the backing of the national Republican apparatus in Washington, D.C. Since Roy Herron is the de facto Democratic nominee in the 8th for the general election, Democrats may be trying to help elect whichever candidate they believe would present the most favorable matchup for Herron.
Whatever the reason for the improvement in the ratio of requested Republican ballots, the most ominous sign for Democrats may be the so-far anemic turnout by registered black voters. So far, there have been 18,204 votes by registered white voters, or 44 percent of all early votes, compared to 13,198 registered black voters (31.9 percent) and 9,932 (24.0 percent) by those who fall into the "other" category, which tends to represent newer and/or younger registrants who did not disclose race when they voted. When you consider that much of the optimism by Shelby County Democrats was anchored in 2008 success countywide, that's a very disappointing trend. In 2008, registered black voters made up 40.7 percent of early votes vs. 29.1 percent for white registered voters.
Interestingly, the conventional wisdom has been that Republicans running countywide like mayoral candidate Mark Luttrell would need to gain significant crossover votes from Democrats to beat interim county mayor Joe Ford. Thus, you get Luttrell strongly denying ever publicly supporting Republican presidential tickets in 2004 and 2008. However, if these trends continue, Luttrell and other Republicans may not need many crossover votes at all to win. That said, we doubt you'll see any commercials by Republican countywide candidates touting their tea-party credentials.
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